Predicting Customer Churn in Indonesian ISPs an MLP and Marketing Intelligence Approach
Main Article Content
Abstract
Customer churn is common in the telecommunication sector. One of the biggest Internet service providers (ISP) in Indonesia has had an increasing customer churn over the past five years. This research aims to integrate Multilayer Perceptron (MLP) neural networks with marketing intelligence to identify and anticipate the potential of churn, allowing for effective retention efforts. The research methods in this study comprise data preparation and preprocessing, exploratory data analysis (EDA), MLP design, and model evaluation. The EDA offers marketing insights and helps identify features to be incorporated into the MLP architecture development. Our results demonstrate the successful integration between exploratory data analysis and MLP, where the SMOTE application in the MLP model has the best outcomes with an AUC of 99% and 79% F1 score. This enables PT XYZ with the ability to better tailor their customer engagement and loyalty campaigns. The research results are expected to have an impact on Indonesian ISP business by offering a more precise and efficient approach to anticipating customer turnover.
Article Details
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.
Authors who publish with this journal agree to the following terms:
- Copyright on any article is retained by the author(s).
- Author grant the journal, right of first publication with the work simultaneously licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution License that allows others to share the work with an acknowledgement of the work’s authorship and initial publication in this journal.
- Authors are able to enter into separate, additional contractual arrangements for the non-exclusive distribution of the journal’s published version of the work (e.g., post it to an institutional repository or publish it in a book), with an acknowledgement of its initial publication in this journal.
- Authors are permitted and encouraged to post their work online (e.g., in institutional repositories or on their website) prior to and during the submission process, as it can lead to productive exchanges, as well as earlier and greater citation of published work.
- The article and any associated published material is distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 4.0 International License
References
Ahmad, A. K., Jafar, A., & Aljoumaa, K. (2019). Customer churn prediction in telecom using machine learning in big data platform. Journal of Big Data, 6(1). https://doi.org/10.1186/s40537-019-0191-6
Aulia Triyafebrianda, H., & Windasari, N. A. (2022). Factors influence customer churn on internet service providers in Indonesia. TIJAB (The International Journal of Applied Business), 6(2), 134–144.
Bogaert, M., & Delaere, L. (2023). Ensemble Methods in Customer Churn Prediction: A Comparative Analysis of the State-of-the-Art. Mathematics, 11(5), 1137. https://doi.org/10.3390/math11051137
Christiadi, H., & Sule, E. T. (2018). The Influence of Distinctive Capability and Innovation Management Towards the Performance of ISPs in Indonesia. Journal of Advanced Research in Law and Economics, 1212(34), 1212–1221. https://doi.org/10.14505/jarle.v9.4(34).06
da Silva, I. N., Hernane Spatti, D., Andrade Flauzino, R., Liboni, L. H. B., & dos Reis Alves, S. F. (2017). Artificial Neural Networks (First Edition). Springer International Publishing. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-43162-8
Edwine, N., Wang, W., Song, W., & Ssebuggwawo, D. (2022). Detecting the Risk of Customer Churn in Telecom Sector: A Comparative Study. Mathematical Problems in Engineering, 2022, 1–16. https://doi.org/10.1155/2022/8534739
Fareniuk, Y., Zatonatska, T., Dluhopolskyi, O., & Kovalenko, O. (2022). Customer churn prediction model: a case of the telecommunication market. ECONOMICS, 10(2), 109–130. https://doi.org/10.2478/eoik-2022-0021
Faritha Banu, J., Neelakandan, S., Geetha, B. T., Selvalakshmi, V., Umadevi, A., & Martinson, E. O. (2022). Artificial Intelligence Based Customer Churn Prediction Model for Business Markets. Computational Intelligence and Neuroscience, 2022, 1–14. https://doi.org/10.1155/2022/1703696
Gaivoronski, A. A., Nesse, P. J., & Erdal, O. B. (2017). Internet service provision and content services: paid peering and competition between internet providers. NETNOMICS: Economic Research and Electronic Networking, 18(1), 43–79. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11066-017-9114-x
Geiler, L., Affeldt, S., & Nadif, M. (2022). A survey on machine learning methods for churn prediction. International Journal of Data Science and Analytics, 14(3), 217–242. https://doi.org/10.1007/s41060-022-00312-5
Gu, X., Angelov, P. P., & Soares, E. A. (2020). A self‐adaptive synthetic over‐sampling technique for imbalanced classification. International Journal of Intelligent Systems, 35(6), 923–943. https://doi.org/10.1002/int.22230
Jahan, I., & Farah Sanam, T. (2022). An Improved Machine Learning Based Customer Churn Prediction for Insight and Recommendation in E-commerce. 2022 25th International Conference on Computer and Information Technology (ICCIT), 1–6. https://doi.org/10.1109/ICCIT57492.2022.10054771
Lalwani, P., Mishra, M. K., Chadha, J. S., & Sethi, P. (2022). Customer churn prediction system: a machine learning approach. Computing, 104(2), 271–294. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00607-021-00908-y
Peng, K., Peng, Y., & Li, W. (2023). Research on customer churn prediction and model interpretability analysis. PLOS ONE, 18(12), e0289724. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0289724
Plangger, K., Grewal, D., de Ruyter, K., & Tucker, C. (2022). The future of digital technologies in marketing: A conceptual framework and an overview. Journal of the Academy of Marketing Science, 50(6), 1125–1134. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11747-022-00906-2
Prabadevi, B., Shalini, R., & Kavitha, B. R. (2023). Customer churning analysis using machine learning algorithms. International Journal of Intelligent Networks, 4, 145–154. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijin.2023.05.005
Riaz Sadia, Mushtaq Arif, & Kaur Maninder Jeer. (2021). Information Visualization : Perception and Limitations for Data-Driven Designs. In PredictiveAnalysis (1st ed., p. 23). CRCPress.
Ribeiro, H., Barbosa, B., Moreira, A. C., & Rodrigues, R. G. (2024). Determinants of churn in telecommunication services: a systematic literature review. Management Review Quarterly, 74(3), 1327–1364. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11301-023-00335-7
Salma, N., & Aprianingsih, Ph. D. A. (2021). Customer Churn Analysis: Analyzing Customer Churn Determinants on an ISP Company in Indonesia. Buletin Pos Dan Telekomunikasi, 29–40. https://doi.org/10.17933/bpostel.2021.190103
Sana, J. K., Abedin, M. Z., Rahman, M. S., & Rahman, M. S. (2022). A novel customer churn prediction model for the telecommunication industry using data transformation methods and feature selection. PLOS ONE, 17(12), e0278095. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0278095