Pengaruh Difusi Layanan Telekomunikasi terhadap Pertumbuhan Ekonomi Negara-Negara ASEAN pada Periode 2005-2016
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Abstract
Empirical studies confirm positive impact of the telecommunication services diffusion on economic growth. However, some other studies deny such findings. The difference in findings does not seem to affect the beliefs of policymakers that the use of information and communication technologies will provide benefits in solving many problems in their countries. This encourages policymakers to develop roadmaps of ICT development in their respective countries, including the roadmap of broadband technology. This study seeks to confirm the impact of telecommunication service diffusion on economic growth in ASEAN member countries. The number of fixed-line, mobile phone, broadband, and internet service users are selected as the representative variables of the diffusion of telecommunication services within ASEAN countries. We also include some macroeconomic indicators, such as the ratio of foreign direct investment (FDI) and the number of labor force into the econometric model. The analyzed data is in the form of panel data, a combination of cross-section data of 10 ASEAN countries and time series data in the period of 2005 to 2016. Multicollinearity test requires us to eliminate the variable of the number of internet users, because its variance inflation factor (VIF) exceeds the threshold. The final analysis on the modified model indicates that at the level of significance of 5%, only the growth of the number of fixed telephone service users is not significant in affecting economic growth in ASEAN member countries.
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Studi empiris mengonfirmasi adanya pengaruh positif antara adopsi layanan telekomunikasi di sebuah negara terhadap pertumbuhan perekonomian. Namun demikian, temuan lainnya menyangkal hal tersebut. Meskipun terjadi perbedaan temuan, pembuat kebijakan tetap percaya bahwa pemanfaatan teknologi informasi dan komunikasi akan memberikan manfaat dalam menyelesaikan banyak permasalahan di negaranya. Hal inilah yang mendorong para pembuat kebijakan berlomba-lomba menyusun peta jalan pengembangan TIK, termasuk teknologi pitalebar, di negaranya masing-masing. Studi ini berusaha mengonfirmasi pengaruh difusi layanan telekomunikasi terhadap pertumbuhan perekonomian di negara-negara anggota ASEAN. Jumlah pengguna jasa telepon tetap, telepon seluler, layanan pitalebar, dan internet dipilih sebagai variabel yang menggambarkan difusi jasa telekomunikasi di negara-negara ASEAN. Penulis juga menyertakan beberapa indikator makroekonomi, seperti rasio foreign direct investment (FDI) dan jumlah tenaga kerja ke dalam model ekonometrika yang digunakan. Data yang dianalisis berupa data panel, gabungan dari data crosssection 10 negara ASEAN dan data runtun waktu pada rentang tahun 2005 sampai dengan 2016. Hasil analisis menemukan bahwa variabel jumlah pengguna internet memiliki nilai variance inflation factor (VIF) yang melebihi ambang batas sehingga perlu dikeluarkan dari model. Hasil analisis terhadap model yang telah dimodifikasi menunjukkan bahwa pada taraf signifikansi sebesar 5%, hanya pertumbuhan jumlah pengguna jasa telepon tetap yang tidak signifikan dalam memengaruhi pertumbuhan ekonomi.
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